Property market has bottomed - it's official

As Disraeli (and then later Mark Twain) said: "There are lies, damned lies and statistics" and boy does the UK property industry thrive on market data.

Every day we seem to be bombarded by forecasts from the government, estate agents, developers, building societies and Uncle Tom Cobbley.

At last though I've found a statistic that I trust because it comes straight from the horses mouth - those searching for property.

Bickey Russell is an analyst at Google and she's recently been talking about the way that the general public searches for property online.

Ms Rusell says that the public believes the days of the bargain are numbered, with queries relating to bargain properties, such as ‘repossessed homes’, ‘property auctions,’ and ‘cheap properties’, down by 55 percent since February.

She has all kinds of other statistics but it's this little gem that strikes a chord with me.  The number of property transactions is all about confidence. 

If Joe Public thinks that the market has bottomed (and clearly Joe does) then they're going to start buying again.

I know this sounds ultra simplistic (because it is) but I place more store in this single stat than all the bumph that gets released by the RICS, NEA or the agents/banks who all have not very well hidden agendas.

Ms Russell also says that the first half of 2009 saw unique visitors to property sites up 15 percent. In the same period searches for the term ‘house prices’ rose 28 percent (having seen falls in 2008) and general queries related to property were up 11 percent.

So there we have it - the recovery has started....how long it will take before transaction numbers rise consistently month on month nobody knows, but it's 9th November 2009 and I'm calling the bottom of the market.

www.cognacproperty.com

More than 25,000 UK shops closed this year

Planning Resource magazine has just run a story saying that over 25,000 shops have closed in the UK so far this year (presumably a few estate agents among them).

I'm just pulling together some research for a story that I'm writing for French Property News about the impact that Google and sites like Tepilo will have on the future of the property market (they picked up on this blog entry I wrote last month).

One thing for sure is that the days of just having a prime high street position are well behind us.

Think I'm scare mongering?  Get yourself a coffee, clear your mind, click here and then let your imagination run riot.

www.cognacproperty.com

The changing face of estate agency

The revolution is gathering pace.

Today's Independent has an excellent article headed "Online property search: the diy sellers", you can read it in full here.

In it the journalist says:

Customers are becoming increasingly autonomous, finding properties on the internet for themselves and seeking professional advice as and when they need it. With the vast majority of properties now advertised online, and tools that allow buyers to look at flats and houses from street level such as Google Street View, buyers don't need an estate agent in the same way they used to.

This strikes a chord with the way my business has changed since I set it up in 2003.

In the beginning my clients would have no knowledge of what properties were available and simply trusted me to show them a suitable cross selection. Some clients still act in this way.

However, there are a growing number who have spent ages scouring the internet and have a good feel for what is on the market - they may well even have found houses that look promising on paper. They are looking for someone who can "project manage" their purchase:

• add to their existing list of properties (by using local contacts, private sales, back street agents)


• do an initial sifting to weed out unsuitable prospects


• guide them through the buying process, offering independent advice and acting purely for them not the agent or vendor


• help in negotiating the lowest possible price


• act as a signpost towards other professional advisors (notaires, surveyors, lawyers, currency brokers, architects, builders, artisans, mortgage advisors)

The French market is going through the same fundamental change as the UK. Nightly television is full of adverts for private sale websites and for property portals. The number of traditional agents is diminishing (I was shocked to see that in the UK one in four agents have closed over the last two years).

I'm not saying that traditional agents are dead men walking, nor am I saying that they don't have a place in the market. Clearly they do and changes like this don't happen overnight. If I were selling my house I would still use local agents and would expect them to advise me on how to "dress" my house to the best effect and how to get the highest possible price for it.

What I am saying though is that customer needs and actions are changing fast. Buyers will need traditional agents less and less.

Sellers on the other hand will be looking to their agents to help them differentiate and stand out from the crowd.....if the agent fails to deliver this then more and more sellers will go it alone and Sarah Beeney may well be proved right when she says:

"The internet has removed the need for estate agents and that in the future it is likely that estate agents will be the preserve of complicated or "out of the ordinary" sales".

www.cognacproperty.com